Wednesday, August 22, 2012

PAKISTAN AND SYRIAN CRISIS

Syrian imbroglio has been crux of conflict in the Arabian Gulf. Syria has been governed by Bashar-ul-Assad, the successor of Hafiz-Al-Assad. Once Hafiz al Assad clamped down similar type of conflict in 1980s and now Bashar al Assad is trying to follow suit. Syria is one of the last Russian allies in the gulf which has been puchasing weapons from Russia. The fall of Bashar al Assad would mean a huge blow to Russian interests. At the same time, china also possesses interests which are slightly different from that of Russia however, due to slight convergence of their interests, they are standing at the same side. American interests as we can see are averse to that of Russia so we can expect that Americans would try to quash the tyrannical regime of Bashar al Assad under the guise of compassion for Syrian people.
Actually, there are chances that Bashar al Assad may be replaced by a more conservative Sunni Government which would align with other Sunni Arabian countries and make synchronized attempts to wipe out Israeli Government. But there are also chances that a broader civil war may arise after the fall of Bashar al Assad. It would debilitate this already impoverished people and would also break the only possible ground connection with Hezbollah. There are greater chances for the later because the Syrian insurgents are heterogeneous with totally different agendas and ideologies. Some are liberal Sunnis, some are moderate and still, some are conservatives. At this time, there is nothing other than the opposition of Bashar al Assad which is binding all these hordes together. Termination of Bashar al Assad would mean a struggle for power between these heterogeneous groups leading towads civil war. At this time, Israel is gambling and persuading Americans to support rebels of Syrial Government and all those countries who are overtly aiding rebels or Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Ambition of Tayyep Recip Erdogan of Turkey to lead the Muslims world has instigated him to harbor refugees of Syrian conflict and assist them to fight the government, keeping in view the Kurdish threats. According to some news, FSA members are offering to help in elimination of Kurdish insurgents in Syria in return for Turkey's assistance. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are also spearheading in endeavors to isolate Syria diplomatically and there are also news of covert assistance of these countries for FSA.
On the other side of coin, Iran is buttressing incumbent government of Syria. Mainly because Bashar al Assad belongs to Shia sect and is close ally of Iran. Iran is achieving this with the assistance of China and Russia who have vetoed two UNSC resolution of action against Syria.
Bashar al Assad is also in a very awkward situation. Due to tremendous atrocities commited by "Shabiha" (Syrian Shia Militant Group) on Sunni Muslims it has become extremely unlikely that after the fall of Assad, there would be no reprisal from Sunnis. There are also chances of outright extermination of Shia sect from the Syria which only makes 10 percent of total population. So, he cannot relieve himself from power without any kind of guarantee. Secondly, he has a great lust of power which is still instigating him to keep on ruling despite widespread distress in the country.
Pakistan's position is very quaint in this situation. At one place, there are countries like China and Iran who are not only close ally of Pakistan but also neighbours, and Russia with which Pakistan wants to rebuilt severed ties. On the other hand, there are America, Saudia Arabia and Turkey which have been close allies of Pakistan and helped it in the hour of need at various occasions. Pakistan is sitting on the rail.
I think Pakistan has chosen a very wise diplomatic stance about Syria keeping in view the current precarious situation in Syria and its eccentric position. Pakistan has chosen to support Syrian people who are endeavoring for right of self determination and also buttressing the opinion that countries should be indemnified from any kind of foreign intervention in the Syria as it would lead to greater distress and permeated civil war.
Pakistan should underscore that Bashar al Assad's regime days are numbered and it would be better for him to sidestep from the presidency. He should enfranchise people to select their new president. As this is the only way of terminating ongoing ominous civil war which may even engulf even the neighbouring countries. OIC and Arab league, instead of isolating Syria, should try to brocker a deal between Syrian rebels and Government and extricate guarantees from both sides not to inflict any further blows to opposing hordes. As only this action would provide respite to the impoverished Syrian people who have become sandwiched between these two opposing groups of interests in their country.

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